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Exploring the Tough Choices for a Sustainable Fiscal Path

The federal government has spent more money than it received in revenue every year since 2002—which puts the nation on an unsustainable fiscal path. We regularly analyze the nation's fiscal outlook to monitor this situation and forecast future scenarios. Specifically, we estimate debt held by the publicⓘThis is the total amount of money that the federal government owes to individuals, corporations, state or local governments, the Federal Reserve System, foreign governments, and other entities outside the federal government. We estimate the debt (what is owed) in relation to the size of the economy (what is earned—the gross domestic product, or GDP) to gauge the nation's ability to repay this debt. and the fiscal gap.ⓘThis measures what the government would need to do to reach a target debt-to-GDP ratio during a specific period. You can explore the effects of different variables on the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio in the graphs below.

Tool One: Debt Sensitivity Analysis

We also run a debt sensitivity analysis to give policymakers a more complete picture of how potential economic and fiscal changes can affect these numbers. The blue line below indicates how we estimate that debt-to-GDP will grow if no variables are adjusted. To see how our simulations change if variables are adjusted under different scenarios (compared to our standard assumptions), select one of the following:

ⓘRevenue is money the federal government collects from sources such as taxes.
ⓘInterest rate is the average annual percentage of the principle the U.S. government pays to investors in Treasury securities to finance federal debt held by the public.
ⓘDiscretionary spending is program spending provided in appropriation acts. For example, most defense and education programs are funded this way.
ⓘHealth care excess cost growth is the number of percentage points by which growth of per capita health care spending exceeds the growth of per capita GDP.
ⓘThe GDP growth rate is the annual rate at which the value of all goods and services produced within the borders of a country is increasing or decreasing.
ⓘSocial Security spending consists of payments made for Old Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance.
Standard assumptions
Debt as a percentage of GDP
Fiscal year
Standard assumptions







Revenue
Debt as a percentage of GDP
Fiscal year
5% higher Standard assumptions 5% lower







Interest rate
Debt as a percentage of GDP
Fiscal year
1 percentage point higher Standard assumptions 1 percentage point lower







Discretionary spending
Debt as a percentage of GDP
Fiscal year
5% higher Standard assumptions 5% lower







Health care excess cost growth
Debt as a percentage of GDP
Fiscal year
1 percentage point higher Standard assumptions 1 percentage point lower







GDP growth rate
Debt as a percentage of GDP
Fiscal year
0.5 percentage points higher Standard assumptions 0.5 of a percentage point lower







Social Security spending
Debt as a percentage of GDP
Fiscal year
3% higher Standard assumptions 3% lower







Tool Two: Fiscal Gap Sensitivity Calculator

The table below shows the policy changes necessary to meet a debt-to-GDP target in 30 years, and the sensitivity of those changes to key assumptions.

What debt target would you like to achieve in 30 years?

What variable do you want to adjust?

For more information about our data and the assumptions we used in the simulation, please see Appendix I of our related Fiscal Health report, GAO-25-107714.